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Wednesday, August 10, 2016

So Why Did Paul Ryan Win?

Here's an interesting if not disturbing piece of information that shows how strong the GOP establishment is in the 1st Congressional District of Wisconsin. If every voter for Russ Feingold in Rock, Walworth, Racine, Kenosha and Waukesha counties switched party brand and voted for Paul Nehlen - Nehlen would have still lost. That's right. Ryan won with 57,391 to Nehlen's 10,852. Those five counties gave Feingold 39,120 votes. Do the math.

As I had correctly deduced in my strategy to Rock The First, if 1st CD Democrats switched party brand Feingold would have still won the senate nomination in a landslide, albeit a lesser landslide. All theoretical of course.

But that also shows how Nehlen's campaign didn't help the situation with some of the far right rhetoric and edgy tactics they employed that in effect, turned off many not-establishment voters he absolutely needed to win. On a positive note, his introductory video was a blockbuster hit and he did stay on top of the TPP issue which played fairly well with the working class manufacturing sector in the 1st, but his campaign style kept getting more aggressive, dark and edgy.

I also think his fast endorsement of Donald Trump was a huge, huge mistake. It would have worked well in a district in Alabama, but Trump lost the 1st CD to Cruz and keep in mind this is a local, not a national race.

If you want to appeal to GOP voters in the district you're trying to win, pssst ...don't endorse the loser. Let Paul Ryan bury himself as the party hack Washington insider endorsing Trump and draw on that contrast. But it was a distinction that could never be made.

On the plus side, SOMETHING made more than 57,000 GOP establishment voters believe that they were going to lose their $100M Koch puppet Wall Street charlatan. That something was fear. They realized if the people wise up and Nehlen draws within 20 points of Ryan on his own, that a grassroots common cause strategy like Rock The First could potentially send him over the top for the win. They weren't going to let THAT happen. No way! Paul Ryan is the UNIVERSE to those folks.

The lesson for myself are the trends that show how both sides appear to be in this not for the common good. It's getting harder and harder to find candidates (or incumbents) willing to fight for their district and more difficult to message the truth in a sea of confusion and mindless chatter.

It's more like there really isn't much difference between most candidates on the Left and Right, GOP or Democrat, Progressive or Conservative - they want the power and money. In other words, they just want the other guy's job.

The issues and ideology are establishment props to make you think otherwise.


Anonymous said...

Nothing we can say here is based on reliable and valid data and information regarding Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District. The limited polling, the e-vote count, the media spin and the public commentary has been arranged in such a manner as to obscure historical reality. I have seen various polls which provide differing `pictures' of what was going on in the 1st Congressional District in Wisconsin. The aggregated poll data suggesting that Ryan had 84% to more than 90% support among voters is, frankly, suspect. It is simply unreliable; sources are more often than not disreputable. Alternative polling data suggest entirely different political realities. Which assessment is valid, which invalid?
I was struck by the fact that some polls indicated that Ryan had the primary locked up. At the same time, other assessments indicated that Nehlen had a very small lead. You may, if you wish, brush aside all unconventional polls indicating more than marginal support for Nehlen. However, one must still properly explain the notable antipathy toward Ryan which is evident across all platforms on Social Media. In fact, it is somewhat difficult to find any supportive remarks about Ryan in Social Media, whereas there was a great deal of support for Nehlen, the challenger. If Social Media provide any indication of what is actually going on (and many believe Social Media constitute a meaningful, objective indicator if properly interpreted) it would appear that Ryan has considerably less support than is attributed to him in certain oft-quoted `professional' polls and in the final e-vote totals.
Clearly, on the face of it a large number of informed Americans apparently want Ryan to retire. Does this mean that those in his Congressional District are ill-informed? Since his policy positions are not supportive of local and US interests it is not easily argued that locals voted for him because he protects and represents local interests. Why should we believe that an overwhelming majority of voters in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District are committed to voting against their own political and economic interests?
To an outside observer Ryan appears to be as much a fabricated political candidate as Hillary Clinton. It has been noted that Clinton can hardly fill a quarter, or a half, of a High School auditorium.
Unfortunately, we will never know what the true level of support was (or could easily have been) for Nehlen because the game is being played on an uneven, asymmetrical and darkened `playing field'.
It is being said today that Ryan `won' the primary. But what does it mean to `win' under present circumstances of public deception, corruption and fundamental asymmetry of power relations? Is winning under such circumstances actually `winning' in any reasonable sense of the word?

Lou Kaye said...

Anonymous, your last sentence, which is a question, answers itself by its mere existence. Thanks for a well formed viewpoint on this election event.

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