Wednesday, August 10, 2016
So Why Did Paul Ryan Win?
Here's an interesting if not disturbing piece of information that shows how strong the GOP establishment is in the 1st Congressional District of Wisconsin. If every voter for Russ Feingold in Rock, Walworth, Racine, Kenosha and Waukesha counties switched party brand and voted for Paul Nehlen - Nehlen would have still lost. That's right. Ryan won with 57,391 to Nehlen's 10,852. Those five counties gave Feingold 39,120 votes. Do the math.
As I had correctly deduced in my strategy to Rock The First, if 1st CD Democrats switched party brand Feingold would have still won the senate nomination in a landslide, albeit a lesser landslide. All theoretical of course.
But that also shows how Nehlen's campaign didn't help the situation with some of the far right rhetoric and edgy tactics they employed that in effect, turned off many not-establishment voters he absolutely needed to win. On a positive note, his introductory video was a blockbuster hit and he did stay on top of the TPP issue which played fairly well with the working class manufacturing sector in the 1st, but his campaign style kept getting more aggressive, dark and edgy.
I also think his fast endorsement of Donald Trump was a huge, huge mistake. It would have worked well in a district in Alabama, but Trump lost the 1st CD to Cruz and keep in mind this is a local, not a national race.
If you want to appeal to GOP voters in the district you're trying to win, pssst ...don't endorse the loser. Let Paul Ryan bury himself as the party hack Washington insider endorsing Trump and draw on that contrast. But it was a distinction that could never be made.
On the plus side, SOMETHING made more than 57,000 GOP establishment voters believe that they were going to lose their $100M Koch puppet Wall Street charlatan. That something was fear. They realized if the people wise up and Nehlen draws within 20 points of Ryan on his own, that a grassroots common cause strategy like Rock The First could potentially send him over the top for the win. They weren't going to let THAT happen. No way! Paul Ryan is the UNIVERSE to those folks.
The lesson for myself are the trends that show how both sides appear to be in this not for the common good. It's getting harder and harder to find candidates (or incumbents) willing to fight for their district and more difficult to message the truth in a sea of confusion and mindless chatter.
It's more like there really isn't much difference between most candidates on the Left and Right, GOP or Democrat, Progressive or Conservative - they want the power and money. In other words, they just want the other guy's job.
The issues and ideology are establishment props to make you think otherwise.
Posted by Lou Kaye at 11:24 AM