I know I’m putting myself out on a limb here, but I predict Paul Ryan will not run for House Speaker because A.) there aren't enough crazies in the House he'd like to speak for, and B.) there are too many crazies to speak against, and C.) Ryan only takes on battles he knows he can win.
After spectator blogging about Congressman Ryan for the past decade, my first instinct tells me that although he is a career opportunist of the first kind, he knows that history shows the House Speaker position (even under more amicable circumstances) would probably be the end of the line for his carefully laid personal ambitions in government – and that’s really all that matters to Ryan. Let's just say he's got bigger priorities.
But Congressman Ryan knowing that history doesn't make him smart like many of his diehard supporters want us to believe - it just makes him cunning. In his mind, he’s come way too far to flush 15 years of a delicately balanced philosophical blur down a toilet to lead a rigidly batshit party delegation of his own making.
I say they are his own making because the radical right-flank in the republican party right now IS a by-product of Ryan’s long miserable two-faced career. It is Ryan and other self-proclaimed “conservatives” in Congress who prattled on for years about the free markets, about less government dependency, tax reform and choice, and then spun around not only to vote for, but to be the power point men on TARP, create new tax exemptions and loopholes on demand, distribute corporate subsidies, establish mandatory medical procedures, dismantle worker protections and on and on – everything against the Classical Liberal philosophy he pretends to espouse. Ryan's rhetorical "base" watched him betray them over and over again. No question he played a huge role in creating the monster the establishment, including the Left, now call the “crazies.”
As much as I disagree with the right-wing crazies' politics in general and their ideological approach to smaller centralized government, I totally understand the betrayal they feel from politicians like Ryan.
I feel the same way when I hear some Democrats speak up in defense of labor unions or civil rights, or against income disparity or so-called "free trade" policies only to discover later they voted to help the establishment drain our tax treasuries for profit and further tilt the tables against wage earners. It is politicians exactly like Paul Ryan who drive the bases of both parties off the cliff. So I understand the betrayal, but that's where the similarities end.
Now with many of his media enablers suggesting the longer Ryan drags it out, the better his chances are to accept the job on his own conditions, actually places the in-over-his-head congressman into a deeper hole dug by regulating the office to shield him from the failures of his ineptitude. There's no way to escape if he implies special conditions are necessary for him to accept the job.
I'm not saying it's an absolute sure bet he won't run for House Speaker, but I'm about 90% sure he won't. The best part for me is I hope he proves my prediction wrong and takes it on just for the entertainment value.
The editorial staff of Paul Ryan's hometown newspaper, the Janesville Gazette, suggest Ryan keep his career first and wash his hands clean of the "mess" in the House.
This call is a sacrifice, not an obligation. Becoming speaker would risk Ryan’s career in an effort to clean up the Republican Party mess in the House.