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Thursday, October 30, 2014

MU Poll Tells Us What We Always Knew. Turn Out, Turn Out, Turn Out.

The final Mu Poll before the election shows a huge uptick (11%) in voter enthusiasm for republicans over a period of just two weeks. That uptick translated to Walker pulling ahead of Burke 50% to 43% among likely voters. The poll reported that 93% of republican respondents stated they are certain to vote, matching their numbers in the same poll category before they won the 2012 recall.

MU Poll Excerpt:
In the current poll, 93 percent of Republicans say that they are certain to vote, while 82 percent of Democrats and 75 percent of independents say the same. Two weeks ago 82 percent of Republicans, and 80 percent of both Democrats and independents, said that they were certain to vote.

This is a last call wake up for Democrats.

MU Poll
In this poll, Republicans make up 26 percent of the registered voter sample and 30 percent of the likely voter sample, with Democrats at 32 percent of both registered and likely voters. Independents are 39 percent of registered voters and 36 percent of likely voters.
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There is nothing magical about it. Assuming everything else is equal, it's plain to see that 93% of a 30% sample (27.90) is greater than 82% of a 32% sample (26.24). Point is, IF that lack of enthusiasm for voter turn-out continues to hold on election day for Democrats - Burke will certainly lose.

The thing is, the MU poll numbers favoring Walker are a result of republicans responding at near full saturation. It won't get much better for Walker. Democrats on the other hand have plenty of room to power up their turn out. Going full throttle during a mid-term however is easier said than done. But it can be done.

From the poll results, we can safely assume that if an equal percentage of democrats said they were certain to show up and vote (93% of 32% sample = 29.76 - Burke will win. We know that and our opponents know that. That's why they enacted Act 10 to defund supporters of democratic candidates, eliminated party line ballots, gerrymandered districts, cut early voting, and almost had Voter ID in place just a few weeks before this election. Because republicans know when the percentage of democratic voters "likely to vote" match or exceed republicans percentage, they will lose - Democrats win.

We've been here before with the recall and republicans turned out. It's not magic. They've planned this day for four years using every legislative and campaign trick in the book. They are geared up to turn out and are hoping we don't.

It's about turn out and it is what we must do to win.

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